Happy Thursday: Here are some stats to make you feel better
Sometimes it helps to take a step back as a fan
Well that sucked. Not really. Despite a Week 1 Penn State loss and a 0% chance of going undefeated this season, I’m still thankful the Big Ten is back.
Remember, friendships > championships.
I spent a lot of time pouring over the stats of Saturday’s shocking Penn State loss to Indiana - mostly because I was trying to win an argument with some kid who’s a Penn State hater and likes to text me “Penn State blows” any time they’re down early. But by doing so, I came across some stuff that made me feel a little better.
[Just an FYI, today’s newsletter won’t have any expected value picks since I didn’t have the time to go through all the games. The win probabilities are still at the bottom of the email for your reference though. I may try to do them tonight, however I’m officially on ~vacation~ at 5 pm sharp so it’s unlikely.]
Penn State wins that game 19 times out of 20
Yes, you read that right. Despite how terrible fans thought PSU played, they actually outclassed Indiana in almost every area that typically decides games. Take success rate. As a reminder, a successful play is defined as:
gaining 50% or more of the yards to go on 1st down (typically 5)
gaining 70% or more of the yards to go on 2nd down (4 more, if you’re successful on 1st down)
gaining 100% of the yards to go on 3rd and 4th downs (convert a first down)
Success rate is then the percentage of your plays that are deemed “successful” using this definition above.
Bill Connelly has found that teams that manage even just 10-20% better success rate than their opponents win the game 91.5% of the time, without even considering any other parts of the game.
Penn State were 9.6% better than Indiana in terms of success rate. They also played better in several other facets of the game, leading to Bill’s prediction that PSU would typically win a game they played like that 95% of the time. The other 5%?
Penn State were by no means the class of the Big Ten this past weekend, but they certainly outperformed their opponent on every down. The Lions were particularly good on 3rd downs, which I’m sure no fan would have agreed with me on immediately after the game.
Disaster struck in all the right places for PSU. 3 turnovers. 100 yards in penalties. 2 missed field goals. And 1 major mental error that gave the Hoosiers one last glimmer of hope, which they took full advantage of.
Penn State’s defense was something to be proud of as they played well most of the game and forced 2 turnovers.
Outside of a long ball to Jahan Dotson, Penn State was unable to generate much of anything in the pass game. Many passes, as Drew alluded to on the podcast yesterday, were hardly passed the line of scrimmage, leaving the majority of the work up to the receivers to earn positive yards.
Despite the lack of explosive plays, PSU still outgained Indiana by slightly under 2 yards per play. Once again according to Bill, teams that do this will win 86% of the time on average.
So where else did they lose the game?
Turnover margin. Indiana came away +1, and those teams win 64.5% of the time. Okay, that’s a start. Throw in some missed kicks and a free possession at the end of the game, and you get a (deservedly) unlucky result in a sloppy game.
PSU actually managed an +9 yard net field position, which is usually good for a win 78% of the time.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance?
Not exactly. I just feel better than I did 72 hours ago, and hopefully you do as well. In a shortened season (in an already short college football season to begin with), it’s important not to over or underreact to any one result. And when we look at the underlying data, there’s a lot of bright spots. Is there work to be done? For sure. There’s a lot to clean up, and Clifford has to manage interceptions going forward or this team won’t stand a chance against any opponent, let alone Ohio State.
You forgot about the bets
You got me there. I did not have time to thoroughly vet these bets this week, but below are the win probabilities for your reference. Last week was rough, full disclosure. Also, Penn State and Wisconsin are bound to be massive value bets. Take them at your own risk.
Thanks for reading, and as always, feel free to tweet us your thoughts on this weekend’s games @staturdays and share this newsletter with a few friends.
– Kyle