The Big Ten is about to be a bloodbath
Expect some ugly, one-sided games as the strong prey on the weak
I can’t say that I sat down knowing that was going to be the subject of this newsletter. But the more I sifted through the stats and thought about the season to come out of the Big Ten, the less I could deny it. There are only two ways this season goes for 13 out of 14 teams: disappointing or painful.
Ohio State are in another stratosphere, and to exacerbate things, the opt-outs, injuries, and graduations appear to have affected their opponents more than themselves.
Expect carnage. Expect to see Clemson-Georgia Tech-type scores from the OSU matchup each week. Penn State will do okay, but we can’t realistically think they have a fighting chance in an early season Week 2 game, without their signature White Out atmosphere nor their leading running back, linebacker, or wide receiver from 2019.
And this doesn’t hold just for Ohio State. The Big Ten is top-heavy, so plan on PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota doing to their opponents what Ohio State may well do to them. In fact, the Big Ten boasts the second-highest average Elo rating of all power-5 conferences, behind only the SEC. But they are also tied for the highest standard deviation between Elo ratings, also with the SEC. And, despite Clemson being the highest-rated team in CFB, it’s the Big Ten that has the biggest difference from 1st-to-last.
All of this means that whoever gets to the CFP coming out of the Big Ten may have a solid chance to win it all, but the play within the conference may favor a select few teams.
Before we get into some picks, let’s look at the Big Ten divisions.
The West
Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota make up the top three contenders out of the West division, rated in that order by Elo. The division will be tight. The three are separated by just 0.2 expected wins this season. In such a close race, the slightest edge or a favorable schedule will get you into the Big Ten championship game. The difference maker for me: Tanner Morgan.
Morgan could argue for the title of best QB in the Big Ten. He finished 4th in yards per attempt in all of college football, in part because of the dynamic play of his wide receivers, who Penn State fans will remember had the speed to break away and torch defenses for hundreds of yards. But beyond that, he competed with some of the biggest names in all of CFB, most of whom are starting in the NFL right now.
Morgan trailed just 5 QBs last year in predicted points added per play, among them Hurts, Burrow, and Tagovailoa. On average, he increased the expected value of that drive by more than half a point per play. He was also the leading QB in the Big Ten in terms of PPA/Play. That red dot slightly left and a square up from him? Justin Fields.
Regardless of who wins the West, it is unlikely to matter much. The top three teams in the East all outrank the West teams in Elo Rating, so they likely won’t be favored for the B1G Championship no matter who their opponent is.
The East
This, unfortunately, may be over before the season really gets going. The biggest obstacle in Ohio State’s path to another Big Ten championship comes early in Week 2 against Penn State. Sadly for Penn State, they will lack much of the home-field-advantage they would be used to on a normal Saturday night White Out game, and may be without their leading rusher, Journey Brown.
Now, they should be able to overcome the missing RB, but can they replace KJ Hamler and Micah Parsons? That’s tougher to say without having seen them play at all this season. They also miss those vital non-conference games to work out any kinks they may have between Sean Clifford and the team around him. Ohio State, with less turnover and elite recruiting, will likely handle that a bit better.
Prediction
Minnesota wins the West, Ohio State wins the East (undefeated), and Ohio State wins the Big Ten Championship and go the College Football Playoff.
Week 8
This graphic is getting obscenely long, and DraftKings still doesn’t have an API, so we were probably lucky to get as far as we did with me running the numbers on every single game. This week, I’ll focus on the Big Ten and leave the rest up to you.
Ok, after writing that, unfortunately the odds were dead-on for the majority of the Big Ten matchups, and the Ohio State game didn’t even bother with a moneyline. However, we came up with three positive expected value picks, and I like all of them.
Minnesota +123 ($1.19 EV)
Penn State -240 ($1.26 EV)
Iowa -162 ($3.44 EV)
The spread for the OSU game is 26.5, and while we can’t officially run the numbers on that, it seems a little low based on what we talked about above.
Outside the Big Ten, here are the picks I like (there weren’t many).
Notre Dame -530 over Pitt ($0.69 EV)
Cincy +108 over SMU ($1.38 EV)
FSU +155 over Louisville ($2.32 EV)
Most Value:
Navy +400 over Houston ($30.95 EV, Staturdays Special) (As always, I am not confident in any Navy pick)
NC State +420 over UNC ($11.01 EV)
In other news, we are completely even at 41-41 on Moneyline bets this season.
Enjoy this weekend of Big Ten football being back. One-play at a time, blue-collar, hard-nosed, disciplined, Big Ten football. Cherish it.
– Kyle